Facts
1. There was a failed coup in Benin Republic.
2. Nigeria was invited by Benin Republic to quell the coup and restore normalcy.
3. The President approved military intervention without approval from the National Assembly.
*Speculation:*
It is speculated that President Macron of France requested President Tinubu to help quell the coup.
*Actions by the Nigerian Military:*
1. The Nigerian Air Force deployed an ISR Beechcraft 350 for surveillance to locate the positions of the coupists.
2. The coupists were located within the capital city, Cotonou.
3. NAF fighter jets easily attacked and dislodged the coupists due to their superior capabilities.
4. The NAF achieved surprise, as the coupists did not anticipate Nigerian intervention.
5. The success in Benin Republic is distinct from Nigeria's fight against terrorism, which operates on a larger scale.
*Achievement:*
Nigeria demonstrated leadership by effectively restoring democratic order in Benin Republic.
*Fall Out:*
1. President Tinubu deployed the military to a foreign land without legislative approval.
2. The intervention may strain relations with Sahel States and impact their willingness to rejoin ECOWAS.
3. Intelligence sharing in the fight against terrorism and banditry may be negatively affected.
4. The intervention could also impact Nigeria's relationship with Francophone West Africa and lead to negative perceptions.
*Potential Consequences:*
1. Economic Impact:Sahel States may impose a no-fly zone, severely affecting Nigeria's aviation industry, disrupting trade, commerce, and travel.
2. Regional Connectivity: This could isolate Nigeria from regional and international markets, impacting economic growth and development.
3. Military Operations:: Restricting military aircraft could hinder Nigeria's ability to respond to security threats, particularly in the context of counter-terrorism efforts.
*Possible Responses:*
1. Diplomatic Efforts::Nigeria might engage in diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation and negotiate a lifting of the no-fly zone.
2. Alternative Routes:: Airlines and operators might explore alternative routes or hubs to mitigate the impact.
*List of Airlines That May Be Affected:*
- Royal Air Maroc
- Asky Air
- Air Côte d'Ivoire
- British Airways
- Lufthansa
- KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
- Air France
- Ethiopian Airlines
- Turkish Airlines
- All private jets (northbound and westbound to/from Nigeria)
The situation highlights the complexities of regional geopolitics and the potential consequences of military interventions.
— _AVM Alkali Mamu (Rtd)_
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